Battery energy storage (BESS) markets are often modelled with precision, but reality rarely behaves that neatly.
In this episode of the Transmission podcast, recorded live at Tamarindo’s Investing in Battery Energy Storage 2026 conference, Harmony Energy CIO Paul Mason joins Modo Energy’s Ed Porter to explore why the gap between valuation-grade forecasts and live market performance is where real outcomes are determined.
Rather than treating forecasts as fixed expectations, the discussion focuses on how successful developers design for uncertainty and adapt as markets evolve.
Key topics include:
- Why treating revenue forecasts as a range of outcomes, not a single figure, informed Harmony’s early move into 2-hour battery duration
- How the listed fund model supported the scale-up of GB BESS, and what the Foresight transaction signals about public versus private market valuation
- Why traditional revenue classifications such as ancillary, wholesale and balancing mechanism are increasingly outdated
- How Harmony approaches market selection in France and Germany, focusing on renewable penetration and grid-led site strategy
- What effective optimiser partnerships look like in practice, and why real-world performance consistently outweighs backtested assumptions
As BESS markets mature, success is defined less by forecast precision and more by the ability to build resilient strategies that perform across a range of conditions.
You can listen to the Transmission podcast here:
